EPISODE DESCRIPTION
Welcome to It's Gonna Be Fine, the podcast where we highlight current topics and trends you may have missed, cut through the noise, and dig deeper to understand what's really going on.
This week, Matti takes a closer look at the changing landscape of higher education: the rising cost of college, declining enrollment, shifting birth rates, international students, online education, and the growing question of whether a traditional four-year degree still delivers enough value to justify the price.
And it’s not as simple as “college is too expensive.” What are we actually paying for? Is it the education, the degree, the career opportunities, the network, or the college experience itself? And if schools lower their prices, can they still provide the quality and experience students expect?
Add an increasingly unpredictable job market and rapidly changing technology to the mix, and the old assumptions about higher education start looking a little shaky.
So when it comes to college… is the math still mathing?
Referenced in this Episode
ABC15 Arizona - "Arizona university enrollment is dropping. Here's why." (via YouTube)
NewsNation - "Andrew Yang Predicts MAJOR College Closures" (via YouTube)
WCCO - CBS Minnesota - "Minnesota college dropping its tuition back to what it was 20 years ago" (via YouTube)
TRANSCRIPT
Hello and welcome to the It’s Gonna Be Fine podcast. I’m Matti.
You know, it’s fall. It’s almost October. I guess we’re way past back-to-school at this point, but it still feels like back-to-school season. And, of course, for the past month or so, my feed has been filled with parents taking pictures of their kids on the first day of school. Young kids, maybe some older kids.
That’s become such a production over the last few years. We can talk about why, but every fall or late summer, it comes around, and I don’t know. For me, it’s feeling a bit over the top. I don’t know about you, but I’ve seen photos this year of red carpets rolled out, with kids walking the red carpet and posing for pictures. Obviously, everyone has their signs, and they might take the photos in their backyard, in their house, or in front of a backdrop. Some people go to great lengths to make it look great.
I don’t really know when this started. Obviously, the fact that we have a camera in our pocket makes it so much easier. And a high-quality camera makes it easier to get great pictures, too. That definitely plays a big part in it.
But I remember one time, a number of years ago, probably right before COVID, around 2019. I’ll never forget this one post on Instagram where all the kids were standing in front of a step-and-repeat, and all the parents were lined up along the wall taking photos, shoving each other for position and trying to get the best shot.
I was like, what? These parents have become paparazzi! That’s exactly what it was. There was just a line of paparazzi parents trying to take pictures of their kids before they entered a classroom.
When I had my first day of school, I was practically shoved out of a moving car. Whoever was driving was like, “Have a good first day!” And off we went. There was none of this production around the whole thing.
I really think it has to do with the access we have today. Of course, social media probably makes it a bigger thing because now everyone has to outdo the next person. So next year, we’ll probably see something else. I don’t know. Kids helicoptering in from their houses, with 4K movie-production value. Who knows? It’s probably just going to get bigger and bigger.
I also think there’s an element of parenting being different now than it was when I was growing up in the ’90s. It’s just different. I think parenting is different. People feel the need to do this, and they have the ability to do so.
It’s something that’s struck me for a number of weeks now because every year, when this happens, it comes up again. So I guess we’ll see how grand it gets as the years progress.
But speaking of school, there’s actually another part of education that seems to be going through a pretty significant identity crisis, and that is college and higher education.
Why College Enrollment Is Declining
We’ve covered this a bit already, particularly in an episode a few episodes ago about accountability. But there’s more to talk about with everything happening in higher education, including some really interesting data and moves that schools are making.
I want to start with some data from schools in Arizona, which I found really interesting. This comes from ABC15, the ABC affiliate in Arizona. They reported on enrollment numbers for Arizona State University, the University of Arizona, and Northern Arizona University.
According to their report, enrollment has fallen at ASU by 1%, at the University of Arizona by 2%, and at Northern Arizona University by 10%. This is from 2025 to 2026.
So enrollment is going down, which we’ve talked about. We know some of the reasons why, but this gives us concrete data from universities in a particular area.
The report also discussed some other interesting numbers. Enrollment at Arizona State University peaked in 2022 at around 80,000 students. It has since dropped by about 7,000 students, to 73,000. So enrollment already peaked a few years ago.
One reason is certainly cost. Specifically, online enrollment options are becoming much more attractive, and cost is a big part of that.
If you compare the costs of online education with those of attending in person, the difference is substantial. And when we say “on campus,” we’re talking about students who need housing and all the other expenses that come with living at school.
Online education costs about $14,800 per year. If you attend in person, the average cost more than doubles, to around $37,738 per year.
A lot of students are saying, “I’m not going to pay that. I’m going to live at home. I can avoid room and board costs, pay lower tuition, and save that money.”
That makes a lot of sense, and it’s consistent with what we’ve been talking about and seeing, especially over the last few years.
There’s another interesting development in Arizona, and I wonder if it’s happening in other states, too. I imagine it is, because I don’t think this is specific to Arizona.
The report discussed declining birth rates. Students entering their first year of college in 2026 would generally have been born around 2008. If you look at birth rates in Arizona, they peaked in 2007, with a little over 102,000 births in the state. In 2008, that dropped to fewer than 100,000, or about 99,200 births.
That’s now having an impact on school attendance. There are simply fewer students to enroll.
I think birth rates have continued to decline, too. I’ve been hearing a lot about this on other podcasts and in the news. Some people are really worried about it, while others are like, “It is what it is.” That’s neither here nor there, but I think it’s interesting to see how it affects schools.
Another piece of information I wasn’t aware of, but that you might find interesting, is that international enrollment has decreased. Specifically, student visa applications have fallen by 10% this year.
There are probably a lot of reasons for that, too. I think there have been a lot of rejections, so perhaps people have stopped applying. Maybe studying in the United States isn’t as attractive as it used to be. Who knows? I’m just guessing, but the reported fact is that applications have dropped by about 10%.
All of these things are contributing to lower enrollment numbers.
It got me thinking about something else we’ve discussed: how some people are questioning whether higher education is as important and valuable as it used to be. They might be worried about AI taking over the jobs they’re studying for or the careers they hope to pursue. So they’re exploring other options or simply feeling that a traditional college degree might not be necessary anymore.
It’s interesting to see all these variables at play: cost, birth rates, and the attractiveness of American universities to international students.
I don’t think it’s simply that people don’t want to go to college anymore. I think they’re asking whether the traditional college experience is worth what we’re charging for it. Schools are also realizing that the population of potential students is declining. I imagine that’s happening across the country.
But obviously, cost is a big part of this.
The $100,000 College Degree
And speaking of cost and what we’re charging for education, let’s talk a bit more about that.
We discussed this a few episodes ago, specifically focusing on Syracuse. But NewsNation recently did a segment about higher education and the cost of attending college. They had some guests on to discuss how more Americans are choosing to skip traditional college, and one of the reasons is cost.
Apparently, there are now 10 schools—not just Syracuse—that are charging more than $100,000 per year. There are obviously more than 10 schools in the country, but this is a trend we’re starting to see.
According to the NewsNation report, the schools charging more than $100,000 per year include Duke University, the University of Chicago, the University of Southern California, Barnard College, Washington University in St. Louis, Smith College, Fordham University in New York, New York University, Georgetown University, and Colgate University.
Fordham surprised me.
They had Andrew Yang on, along with another guest. As you probably know, Yang is a businessman and entrepreneur who later became involved in politics. I’m not exactly sure what he does now, but presumably, it’s more business-related.
He predicted that colleges would start closing because they simply couldn’t afford to stay open anymore. Some might close entirely, while smaller colleges might merge with other schools.
He also discussed the underemployment rate. I don’t know what sources he was using, but he mentioned that it’s approaching 50% for college graduates right now.
I don’t know whether that’s necessarily the right number, but I think we’ve all seen that underemployment is increasing.
Underemployment is essentially when someone has a job, but that job doesn’t fully utilize their skills. Maybe it’s not related to what they studied, doesn’t offer as many hours as they want, or pays below their qualifications. All of those situations can be considered underemployment.
And that brings us back to the question of value.
If I go to school for four years and then end up underemployed, what’s the value of that degree anymore? Maybe there are other options I could pursue. Is it worth paying this kind of money?
These are questions we’re asking all the time, and the answers are becoming clearer and clearer.
If we widen the lens and focus on these high-priced schools, we can ask a number of questions that prospective students are probably asking themselves.
If some schools are charging more than $100,000 per year, what exactly am I purchasing for that kind of money? Is the degree itself valuable?
Is the education I receive, and the bachelor’s degree I graduate with, worth that cost? I don’t know. Maybe it depends on what you’re studying.
When it comes to getting a job, especially an entry-level position in certain professions, your education, where you went to school, and what you studied can still matter. But a lot also depends on the internships you’ve had and the experience you’ve gained.
Sometimes, you don’t need much beyond ambition and motivation. You get your foot in the door, and your experience ends up speaking much louder than your education.
So these are all questions people are asking.
But even if the degree itself has value, what about the credentials and networking opportunities you gain from attending a four-year university? Maybe that experience opens the door to internships. Maybe alumni connections prove valuable. Maybe having a degree shows a potential employer that you can commit to something, see it through, and successfully complete four challenging years of study.
Those things have value, too.
At the same time, I think we’ve seen a lot of employers move away from requiring degrees for various reasons, including inclusivity. Not everyone can afford college, and requiring a degree can exacerbate inequality. You might exclude someone who couldn’t afford a degree, even though they have the skills and potential to do well at your company.
Then there’s another question: Is there still value in paying for the college experience itself?
The partying, the friends, the extracurricular activities, the organizations—there’s a lot to it.
Personally, I became a completely different person in college. It was a new experience for me. Before college, elementary school and high school felt like being in a bubble with the people I’d grown up with and known my whole life.
Then I went to college, and suddenly I was meeting all these new people. The world seemed to open up. It felt like this little world of possibilities, with things I could do and clubs I could join.
It was a really monumental, formative experience for me.
So, is that worth the money?
There are several different things people might consider worthwhile, or not, about the college experience. But these questions are becoming harder to ignore. You have to ask yourself how valuable the things you’re paying for really are, and whether you’re willing to spend that kind of money to get them.
We’ve talked a bit about equality when it comes to employment, but now there’s another concern: Does this mean only wealthy kids will be able to afford these experiences and, ultimately, get certain jobs?
What happens to people who can’t afford it? We’re creating another barrier that makes it harder for them to compete with people who have more means and resources.
That’s something I’ve been thinking about as college costs continue to rise. We’re making it impossible for some people to attend, potentially creating even more challenges for them as they try to succeed in their chosen fields.
And that doesn’t feel right.
Let’s assume it’s wealthy kids and wealthy families who are the ones going to college, gaining all these experiences and credentials, and signaling to employers that they can complete a four-year degree and are prepared for the workforce.
Meanwhile, those students might not even have to worry about some of the things other people do. Will AI replace my job? Will I be able to get a job at all?
I’m sure some wealthy students worry about those things, too, but I’m very much generalizing here.
My point is that if these systems continue to evolve in a way that makes it harder and harder for people without wealth to participate, what is that going to create?
Those are certainly things to think about.
Can Lower Tuition Solve the Problem?
However, there is a potential ray of light in what at least one school is doing.
This gets even more interesting because there’s a school in Minnesota that’s actually decreasing tuition.
I saw this report from CBS Minnesota, and at first I thought, “This sounds great! Awesome! Who’s not going to like this? It creates more opportunities for people, and they’re lowering costs.”
But then I realized it brings up a number of other questions, too.
First, let me tell you a little about the school. Concordia University, St. Paul, is a private university in Minnesota, and it’s cutting tuition by about 20%, or $5,500 per year.
That brings tuition back to what it was in 2006. They’re essentially returning to the tuition levels of 20 years ago.
The university is betting that lower tuition will increase enrollment, and it seems like a pretty good bet. According to the report, the last time they reduced tuition was in 2013, and that reportedly led to a 90% increase in enrollment.
That was a shocking number to me. A 90% increase! That’s amazing. More people can attend the university, which is a private school that may now cost less than some public universities.
So, great. But then I started thinking: What happens if this actually works?
I’m curious about what happened in 2013 when enrollment increased by 90%. If you drastically lower tuition and suddenly have many more students, does the school have enough faculty to teach them all?
Or does that mean classrooms become much bigger? And the larger the classroom, the less individual attention students might receive from their teachers and the less access they might have to them.
What about the school’s resources? Those could become seriously stretched if enrollment nearly doubles. Will there be enough student services? Enough resources to support students? Enough housing?
Will all these students be living on campus?
I’m not just talking about Concordia University, St. Paul. If other schools were to do this, these are questions they’d have to consider, too.
Ultimately, does the student experience deteriorate?
It’s one of those situations where you might think, “You get what you pay for.” If a school cuts tuition by $5,500 and charges what it did 20 years ago, does the quality of the education decline because classrooms are bigger and resources are stretched?
Then I started thinking about the universities charging more than $100,000 a year. We’re faced with the same fundamental question: Is this worth it?
While I might not be paying $100,000, what am I getting for that $5,500?
Obviously, there are probably numerous answers, depending on the student, their situation, and their goals.
But to me, it’s not as simple as saying lower costs solve the problem. There are other things that need to be figured out. How do we ensure that education is accessible while also providing the quality of education and resources students need to succeed?
Of course, the AI acronym is swirling around in my head right now, because that’s another variable to add to all of this—and another thing that could affect everything.
It seems like a really challenging time for higher education.
And I realize I’m contradicting myself a bit. You might be sitting there thinking, “Hold on a second. You’re saying $100,000 is too expensive, but now you’re saying that while $5,500 might be affordable, it might not provide enough quality. So what do you want here, Matti? Can you make up your mind?”
You’re right. I’m thinking that, too.
But that’s kind of the point: There isn’t an easy answer here.
There are a lot of things to consider. It’s complicated, and it’s a little messy. We’ll have to see what happens.
Hopefully, this gets other people thinking about it, too, and maybe helps lead to some viable solutions.
Is Higher Education Keeping Up?
So, tell me what you think. What role does a four-year college degree play today? What should students prioritize? And how the hell are you supposed to choose a career at 18 when something like AI could fundamentally change what that career looks like by the time you graduate?
We’re not even just talking about how the workplace might change over the next four years. There are conversations happening now about whether the world will even exist in four or five years.
I shouldn’t laugh, but what else are we supposed to do?
I think the big question for me is this: Are we still using an education model designed for a previous economy to prepare people for an economy and a world that are changing so quickly? Is higher education, as we currently know it, simply not keeping up?
I think it’s clear that some schools are still using the old-school model, and some people are perfectly happy with that. They’re thinking, “Yep, that’s fine. I’m going to Barnard, Washington University in St. Louis, or wherever. I’m going to pay whatever it costs, and I’m going to get that experience.”
That’s totally their prerogative, and that’s fine.
But I think it’s also clear that there’s another side to this. There are people saying, “This just doesn’t work anymore,” and that the market needs to adjust.
We’ve talked about one example with the school in Minnesota, but the market is starting to adjust. If that’s the first school doing this, others might follow. Maybe there are already other schools doing it, too.
The fact that this keeps coming up in the mainstream media, and we keep hearing about the challenges facing schools and universities, tells me that people are challenging the status quo.
And I was thinking about how often this happens when economies shift, business models change, and experiences evolve. Whether it’s education or something else, we’ve seen it before.
Think about how we consume video content and entertainment these days. Streaming and YouTube are now the norm.
It wasn’t that long ago that you had to DVR something or be available at a specific time on a specific day. Appointment television was really your only option.
When was the last time you told someone, “No, I can’t meet you for dinner because I have to watch CSI: Miami at 8 p.m.”?
We don’t have to do that anymore. The whole system has changed, and it happened pretty quickly.
We’ve seen things like this before. Consumer demands and needs shift, and that changes the economy. Systems eventually begin to adjust to meet those needs and wants.
We’ll probably continue to see this happen everywhere.
I think the good thing is that if we keep pushing the economy, markets, and systems to adapt, they’ll have to shift. And the way we do that is by being honest about what we value, what we want, and what we need, whether we’re talking about streaming or education.
Then we have to take action that supports those priorities.
That means taking accountability and making the best decisions for ourselves. Just because the market says I should attend a particular school and pay a certain amount of money doesn’t mean I have to do it.
I can choose not to.
And the more people who make decisions that align with what they actually need and want, the more the economy will have to shift. The balance of power will start to move, and hopefully, we’ll begin to see things align and make more sense. Ideally, that will make education more accessible, too.
If we continue to take action that’s true to what we need and want, I do think it will make it more likely that—and you know what I’m going to say—it’s gonna be fine.
We’ll see you next time!
This transcript has been lightly edited for readability.
